Junior Warden Philip Thomas has published in the Spectator again and will be delivering a WCSIM webinar on Thurday 27 May 2021 at 1900 on Measuring and controlling the Covid-19 Pandemic – how well have we done?
As the Covid-19 crisis nears its end in England, it is desirable to examine how best to measure and control a Covid-19 epidemic, to see how well we have done and to learn lessons for the future.
Our Speaker leading us through this topic is Junior Warden Professor Philip Thomas who is currently Professor of Risk at Bristol University. Philip has been a regular contributor of the Spectator most recently during the current COVID Pandemic. His latest article in the Spectator can be found here
The talk will review the history of the Covid-19 pandemic and what control measures are possible. These will then be set in their economic context, which can then be translated into health consequences using a new risk management technique, the Judgement-value, J-value for short, which provides a rational and objective balance between the cost of a countermeasure and the amount of life it saves. The modelling necessary to characterise an epidemic will be discussed, including the history of its development. The information required to populate epidemic models will be discussed and then the measurement requirement for online monitoring and control.
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